Is blanket ban on “Opinion Polls” would be democratic?
While Congress party demands opinion poll ban after its expose their mischievous conduct of manipulating the poll projections for money if approached, through sting operation which reveals massive manipulation. Recently a TV channel has claimed sparking a fresh controversy when the senior ministers and political parties called for an investigation.
This expose created a huge controversy and naturally everybody raised their concern on credibility of these poll surveys. The Congress repeated its old demand of banning all opinion polls. Some others also supported although many were not in favour of blanket ban seeking some regulatory authority on such agencies.
In fact, the people have lost faith in the poll survey agencies. But, it is not understood as to why people want ban on opinion polls? Some argued that after the expose, it has lost its credibility while the fact is that opinion poll surveys were never credible because of the absence of some scientific method especially when there are number of political parties in the country and the percentage of vote can be ascertained only where two party system works.
In America it’s more easier because the system of ‘winner takes it all!’ European nations are very small and voters are of more or less having same back ground. On the contrary, India is a hugely diversified nation. The language changes in after every fifty kilometer. In one square kilometer of urban area one would find number of religions, cultures, ideologies etc.
Thus it is always difficult to predict anything with a sample size of some thousand votes. Everybody knows that these opinion polls are only speculations but still people have the curiosity to know what that sample actually says.
In fact, the people have lost faith in the poll survey agencies. But, it is not understood as to why people want ban on opinion polls? Some argued that after the expose, it has lost its credibility while the fact is that opinion poll surveys were never credible because of the absence of some scientific method especially when there are number of political parties in the country and the percentage of vote can be ascertained only where two party system works.
In America it’s more easier because the system of ‘winner takes it all!’ European nations are very small and voters are of more or less having same back ground. On the contrary, India is a hugely diversified nation. The language changes in after every fifty kilometer. In one square kilometer of urban area one would find number of religions, cultures, ideologies etc.
Thus it is always difficult to predict anything with a sample size of some thousand votes. Everybody knows that these opinion polls are only speculations but still people have the curiosity to know what that sample actually says.
The real problem is with converting vote percentage into seats. There is absolutely no formula. Whatever methods are used is just based on past history, recent results, condition of contest and presence of particular party – whether it’s presence confined to a specific part or spread over entire area. It looks to be astrology with an error margin or in saying with a pause to a lady expecting a child will be male or female – male not female, male not, female.
CSDS and AC Neilson didn’t agree to manipulate the projection during the sting operation. But their poll projection too goes wrong many a time. Even C-Voter although agreed to do manipulation, but it was not ready to do it in its name, rather with its sister organization through a colleague. That means though there are some corrupt people in the trade, but there are some good and honest agencies too. Their method may be at an early stage for a country like India, but regular practice would make them better.
But question is, in a democracy, why there should be ban. Those who had taken black-money and exposed, police action should be taken against them. At the same time opinion polls should be allowed so as to prove their credibility.
Both the major political parties Congress and BJP with the alliances as UPA and NDA claim to return to the power. NDA too claims that they will form next government. Modi’s followers say that BJP will cross the magic figure of 272. Are not these opinions are technical? And such opinions were always claimed by the parties in last many elections.
How can we ban political parties from claiming that they would win or not? Arvind Kejriwal immediately jumped his gun and said that BJP is giving money to manipulate the opinion polls. He perhaps forgot that AAP had done an opinion poll, citing to win 2/3rd majority in the election. The result of this opinion poll was pasted on the back of most auto-rickshaws! If one complains that the AAP’s opinion poll was manipulated, what would be his answer?
Frankly speaking, everybody has a right to give an opinion and propagate his assessment of survey and those who do unethical let them be booked but banning opinion polls would be undemocratic in India.
If we go by the past, in 2004 each and every opinion poll, even exit polls projected NDA’s return. But people voted otherwise. Similarly in 2009 at least 50% opinion polls projected Advani as the Prime Minister, but again People voted otherwise. Thus, there should be no ban on opinion poll or opinion making.
But question is, in a democracy, why there should be ban. Those who had taken black-money and exposed, police action should be taken against them. At the same time opinion polls should be allowed so as to prove their credibility.
Both the major political parties Congress and BJP with the alliances as UPA and NDA claim to return to the power. NDA too claims that they will form next government. Modi’s followers say that BJP will cross the magic figure of 272. Are not these opinions are technical? And such opinions were always claimed by the parties in last many elections.
How can we ban political parties from claiming that they would win or not? Arvind Kejriwal immediately jumped his gun and said that BJP is giving money to manipulate the opinion polls. He perhaps forgot that AAP had done an opinion poll, citing to win 2/3rd majority in the election. The result of this opinion poll was pasted on the back of most auto-rickshaws! If one complains that the AAP’s opinion poll was manipulated, what would be his answer?
Frankly speaking, everybody has a right to give an opinion and propagate his assessment of survey and those who do unethical let them be booked but banning opinion polls would be undemocratic in India.
If we go by the past, in 2004 each and every opinion poll, even exit polls projected NDA’s return. But people voted otherwise. Similarly in 2009 at least 50% opinion polls projected Advani as the Prime Minister, but again People voted otherwise. Thus, there should be no ban on opinion poll or opinion making.